Juniors Head
Race RankingsFall eights and fours, ranked from results on the course

Every result is one crew's time in one race. The model estimates two things at once: a speed ranking for each crew, and how slow each race was that day (course length, current, wind). Because everyone in a race shares its conditions, the listed distance doesn't need to be exact.

Gaps are measured in percent, then shown as seconds behind the top crew over a standard 5,000 m head race. To compare any two crews, subtract their seconds back.

• Recent races count more than older ones, and scrimmages count less than races.
• A result far off what the model expects (a crab, a bad steer) is automatically given less weight.
• Results marked Exclude in the sheet are left out.
• A crew is provisional until it has raced at least twice against crews that have also raced twice. Provisional crews show as an open hull.
• Only crews linked to the others through shared races can be ranked. Any that aren't are listed below the rankings.
• All teams (the default) shows every crew; DC Metro area shows crews from DC, Maryland and Virginia only. Rankings are worked out from every result either way, so a crew's ranking is the same in both views.

Method adapted from the approach behind row2k's cMax college ratings (least squares on head-to-head results).